Sean t rcp twitter.

Nov 8, 2018 · “I've gotten a few questions about the "split decision" narrative, and whether it should change if Ds pull out wins in FL-Sen and AZ-Sen (good chance in both!). This gets to one of my biggest pet peeves about elections analysis and sports analysis. 1/” “We're reaching the end of the second quarter, which is when election outcomes are more-or-less baked in. At this point, you really have to have Republicans as overwhelming favorites to take the House with solid margins, and strong favorites to take the Senate.”“I mean, Cameron County 50-50 with half the vote counted? Obama beat Romney here by 30 points. He won Willacy County by 40 (which is also tied right now). I mean later votes will probably shift things but the fact that this is even close in a congressional race . . .”What occurred wasn’t a failure of the polls. As with Brexit, it was a failure of punditry. Pundits saw Clinton with a 1.9 percent lead in Pennsylvania and assumed she would win. The correct ...“Trying to think of a more consequential shift than Barrett for Ginsburg. Maybe Black for Van Devanter in the 30s, but Roberts already flipped. Thomas for Marshall? Ginsburg-for-White next year cancels, Souter goes left.Maybe Goldberg for Frankfurter, giving Warren 5 solid votes.”

“@billscher @ThePlumLineGS I still think the biggest threats to Ds in a non-filibuster universe are things that can get to the core of their power infrastructure: national right to work, school vouchers, limits on public sector unions, tort reform, etc.”“So is anyone else sort of freaked out by these supply chain issues? Went to Macy's to get shoes; the guy said he usually had 8,000 pairs but today only had 400. The brake rotors for my wife's car were on backorder. The shelves at the paint store were half-empty. 1/”

“Anyway, this might be a one-off thing. I hope it's a one off thing, and not another example of liberalism, having become ascendant in American politics, abandoning some of the principles that enabled it to begin its ascent out of fear that something else might replace it. 6/”Good @ThePlumLineGS post on fixing the Electoral Count Act, something that should have bipartisan support. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/30/how ...

Since Twitter seems reasonably likely to go away in the next couple of years, my 2c: Obvs the site is miserable, but there's an entire generation of top-notch young analysts like @JMilesColeman who probably would have gone unnoticed but for Twitter. 1/ 31 Oct 2022 01:42:44“@shundle So if what we're seeing is more about Ds being hyperenthusiastic, rather than people changing minds, we might expect to see something like what I've sketched out.”Things will change, and the voters will get another say in two years. Sean Trende is senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. He is a co-author of the 2014 Almanac of American Politics and ...Jun 1, 2022 · “So many other low points, like horses on Star Destroyers, or Chewie fake dying, or C3P0 fake losing his memory, or the weird Kimiji storyline, or a Palpatine appropriating the Skywalker name. But here's the thing, most of the problems were not of Ep. IX's making. 7/” Since Twitter seems reasonably likely to go away in the next couple of years, my 2c: Obvs the site is miserable, but there's an entire generation of top-notch young analysts like @JMilesColeman who probably would have gone unnoticed but for Twitter. 1/ 31 Oct 2022 01:42:44

Things will change, and the voters will get another say in two years. Sean Trende is senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. He is a co-author of the 2014 Almanac of American Politics and ...

Sean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende Sr. Elections Analyst at RCP. Co-Author, Almanac Am. Pols. 2014. Recovering Attorney. If you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention.

“@KevinMKruse It's possible, but he'd have to be pretty sure the leak would flip a vote, or think that it would blunt the impact of the decision in June by spreading out the news cycle (the latter is more plausible imo).”“My take after three years in a poli sci grad program reading "the literature": People should use "suggests" a whole lot more, "demonstrates," "proves," "shows," "confirms" less. You can just give me my doctorate now for that compelling insight.”“Trying to think of a more consequential shift than Barrett for Ginsburg. Maybe Black for Van Devanter in the 30s, but Roberts already flipped. Thomas for Marshall? Ginsburg-for-White next year cancels, Souter goes left.Maybe Goldberg for Frankfurter, giving Warren 5 solid votes.”26 Ara 2020 ... I'm going to create a meme roundup that is so self-indulgent...“Any of the remaining three presents a strong case, to my mind. I don't think it's AotC though. OK, fine, "I don't like sand" is arguably the worst or second worst line in all Star Wars history. But if you pull the Padme/Anakin romance and ninja Yoda stuff, it …

Sean T at RCP on Twitter: "Democrats maintaining control of ... ... Log in“We're reaching the end of the second quarter, which is when election outcomes are more-or-less baked in. At this point, you really have to have Republicans as overwhelming favorites to take the House with solid margins, and strong favorites to take the Senate.”“One problem Biden has is that he doesn't have much "crawl-over-broken-glass-twice-to-vote-for-him" type support. That inoculated Obama and Trump from a total wipeout. He really could completely collapse.”“Anyway, this might be a one-off thing. I hope it's a one off thing, and not another example of liberalism, having become ascendant in American politics, abandoning some of the principles that enabled it to begin its ascent out of fear that something else might replace it. 6/”Sean T at RCP on Twitter: "So my Voting & Participation class drew an Ohio map without ever turning on the political map, and came up with this. It isn't 100% …In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“On hearsay: First, it doesn't matter for right now, because this isn't a trial. At the same time, the hearsay rule isn't just some legal mumbo-jumbo, it's rooted in the common sense notion that you're more skeptical of evidence offered second- …

Log in. Sign upReplying to @apearlma@SeanTrende. My understanding has been that the public health officials want people to mask because they're worried about this sort of transmission. My basic sense is that this is headed toward vaccinated people not needing to mask. But we need to know definitively about whether they can.

“My hot take is that George Martin pretty clearly lost the motivation to finish the main series after the show overtook him, and he should just do a lengthy blog post giving the outlines of how he would have ended it and then go …May 10, 2021 · “Gen X is gonna get skipped over for presidents until we're 80 years old like the Silents. No respect.” “This is insane. 20 years ago the all-in at Duke Law (tuition, living expenses, books) was about $40k. I don’t think the education provided has improved *that* much.”Senior elections analyst for RCP, Sean Trende, likewise said that the claim was “untrue” on Twitter. While The Associated Press and cable news networks have projected Biden as the winner, RCP has not called the 2020 presidential race for either candidate at the time of publication. RCP lists Biden as having 259 electoral votes and …“@RadioFreeTom @ThePlumLineGS I'm saying a restoration might have been possible by taking the "grudging acceptance" route. I think it's probably a nonstarter having taken the civil war route. Which I think is probably a righteous tack, but let's be real about the consequences. 4/4”“.@FiveThirtyEight nowcast up to 32.2% Trump. So we're at Russian Roulette with bullets in two cylinders.”It's pretty amazing that we have a grand total of 3 decent, non interest-group sponsored polls of Fetterman-Oz. 08 Aug 2022

“@sahilkapur @RobGeorge @EsotericCD On 2), I never understood the white hot, burning hatred of Buttigieg among younger progressives. But it is very much there.”

Jun 7, 2021 · “@ThePlumLineGS @billscher So I'm pretty comfortable saying they'd have gotten something through absent the strictures of reconciliation. And remember, with regular order you don't have to go all-or-nothing. You can do a *ton* through appropriations riders, which give nervous members cover.”

Home » Tweets to Sean T at RCP. Tweets to Sean T at RCP. Twitter handle: @seantrende. Name: Sean T at RCP. Location: Followers: 46728. Bio: ... Co-Author, Almanac Am. Pols. 2014. Recovering Attorney. If you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention. Tweets to this user: From @DLeonhardt Sun, Sep 15, 2019 at 5:18 pm.In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSean T at RCP is a free elf @SeanTrende. It described it as being 100% in, but in fact, those precincts are partially reporting. There are eight counties still at ...“Alright, Florida (mostly), Georgia, IN-01, Western KY, SC, VT and VA are on deck. Then at 8, all hell breaks loose.”Log in. Sign upSean T at RCP is a free elf @SeanTrende. It described it as being 100% in, but in fact, those precincts are partially reporting. There are eight counties still at ...In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersJun 29, 2022 · “And we're probably just interested in that statement for the actual fact that Trump tried to commandeer the Secret Service vehicle. Now there are about a billion exceptions to the hearsay rule. 6/” “@Izengabe_ @fawfulfan More to the point, the typical way we do a quick-and-dirty assessment of a state's political orientation is PVI, and Kentucky is a point redder than Vermont is blue. If one wants to make a nuanced critique of CPVI here that's fine, but at that point you've lost the plot.”Where there isn't a central constitutional argument, it isn't surprising that these justices might look askance at modifying Gingles. 2/ May 16 • 10 tweets • 3 min read“@BenjySarlin @_Jon_Green @EsotericCD Don't want to belabor the point, but I do keep coming back to: This looks waaaaaay different from exurban OH than NYC. Out here we aren't using our excess hospital capacity, we're testing entire prison populations, our statewide death total is about 3% of NYC daily, etc. 1/”

Sean T at RCP is a free elf @SeanTrende The losses this term were really aggressive asks on the VRA and ISL. and even there Kav and Roberts left a trail of crumbs on how to get to the desired outcome next time.A new book about Sen. Mitt Romney details his interactions with Fox News host Sean Hannity. Romney and Hannity were allies, but the TV host turned on the …Jul 5, 2022 · “Here in the real world Silver gives Demings a 1-in-17 chance of beating Rubio, but sure, why not?” Instagram:https://instagram. lance leipold press conferencenotation for all real numbersconsequence based interventions abaanth 100 “@Izengabe_ @fawfulfan More to the point, the typical way we do a quick-and-dirty assessment of a state's political orientation is PVI, and Kentucky is a point redder than Vermont is blue. If one wants to make a nuanced critique of CPVI here that's fine, but at that point you've lost the plot.”[Sean T at RCP, RT'ed by Nate Cohn] Reminder: don't be a crosstab truther. You're dealing with small sample sizes, sometimes subjected to multidimensional weighting. They're mostly useful for patterns that appear across multiple polls, not for disputing the topline's accuracy. twitter how to become a vice principalrti curriculum “What an apolitical redraw does is add some responsiveness to maps. In great D years they can draw to parity in PA, and in the map my class drew they might end up 6-9 or 7-8 in Ohio. A solid gerrymander might prevent those outcomes. 6/” raymond belliotti In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users1 Tem 2023 ... Future Healthc J: Vol. 10, Issue 2 (July 2023) · EDITORIAL · MENTAL HEALTH SPECIAL · ORIGINAL RESEARCH · REVIEW · CASE STUDY · SHORT QI REPORT.https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1545114625141837826 If you look at what Reagan was elected to do: defeat the Soviet Union/reignite American exceptionalism, lower taxes, slow the pace of social change, defeat inflation, etc., it was all accomplished by 1992.